2319:The Power of Patience: How LRM Enhances Decision-Making

Introduction:

Building on the discussions in my previous blog (No. 2302), I want to share a personal story that illustrates the Last Responsible Moment (LRM) concept, a key principle in Agile project management and Lean thinking. LRM advocates delaying decisions until they become critically necessary, yet still allows for a successful outcome.

My LRM Experience:

Last autumn, I faced a practical situation that called for the application of LRM. My car's winter tires, mounted on the wheels used for summer tires, needed to be replaced. Planning ahead for the next summer, I decided to buy spare wheels for the summer tires so I could handle the replacement myself in my parking lot.

I searched for suitable second-hand wheels on Japanese online marketplaces. Fortunately, I found a perfect set of genuine wheels from a car maker at a reasonable price, although they came with used tires. I quickly decided to purchase them.

The wheels arrived in excellent condition, with almost no scratches. It appeared that the seller had replaced them with a custom set shortly after buying the car. To my surprise, the wheels included nearly new winter tires.

Here's where the LRM principle comes into play. Just two weeks after purchasing and replacing the winter tires, I found the exact wheels I initially wanted, equipped with fresh winter tires. Had I waited to purchase the winter tires until after finding these wheels, I could have saved about $1,000.

Reflections:

The challenge was the unpredictability of finding my preferred wheels, especially ones paired with fresh summer tires. In November, with the winter season beginning, I rushed to make a purchase, influenced by System-1 thinking and the concept of a time discount rate (as discussed in blogs No. 2311 and No. 2303). However, this decision, contrary to the LRM approach, led to an unnecessary expense.

Lessons Learned:

Decision-making often occurs under uncertainty. While some decisions turn out to be correct, others do not. This experience taught me the importance of not overly regretting suboptimal outcomes. It's crucial to have a margin for error and avoid risking everything on one decision. Keeping our investments within manageable limits allows for easier recovery with minimal extra effort and cost.

Conclusion:

A relevant Japanese proverb, "果報は寝て待て" (Good things come to those who wait), echoes my experience. While I usually support the time discount rate method, this incident has given me a deeper appreciation for the Last Responsible Moment strategy, highlighting how patience can sometimes prevent unnecessary expenditure and effort.